End of the road for our titans

Jordyn and sister Taeylor help polish their Holden-loving father David Feast's 1981 VH Commodore. Picture: DYLAN COKERr Source: adelaidenow

THE cars that have shaped and divided a nation over more than three decades are headed for the big carpark in the sky.

The Ford Falcon and Holden Commodore are almost certain to be phased out within months of each other at the end of 2016

, marking the end of a battle that for many Australians started in the schoolyard fighting for the honour of the family car.

But those times are well behind us. We might have a soft spot for the "red" or the "blue" corner, but we're not buying locally made cars from those brands like the good old days.

Thanks to the strong Australian dollar we've been gorging ourselves on sharper-priced and better-equipped imported cars that better suit our needs and congested cities.

The shift away from the Falcon and Commodore is not a shock to industry observers. As tragic as the consequences will be for those in the manufacturing workforce, many of us are relieved that someone has finally ripped off the Band-Aid so we can allow the wound to heal.

The sales figures tell the grim reality. Falcon and Commodore deliveries are at record lows in an all-time record new-car market.

Even the government, which has invested billions of taxpayer dollars in local manufacturing over the decades, isn't buying Falcons and Commodores in the numbers it used to.

Holden has committed to manufacturing cars until 2022 after securing $275 million taxpayer dollars in April 2012. Critically, it did not say what type of car it would build alongside the Cruze, leaving open the possibility it could be a Commodore.

Dick Johnson's Ford XD Falcon leads Peter Brock's Holden Commodore at Bathurst in 1980.

Yesterday at the Detroit motor show, Holden inadvertently confirmed the Commodore's run is due to come to an end in late 2016, the same horizon Ford has previously given for the Falcon.

In an interview with Australian journalists, the boss of Holden Mike Devereux said: "VF (Commodore) will run through to the end of 2016. We have a current plan to put a second (vehicle type) into the plant before 2017."

The revelation came a day after Holden admitted that the jobs of the 320 workers at its Port Melbourne V6 engine plant are in jeopardy beyond the end of 2016 as car buyers around the world shift to four-cylinder cars.

Most of the V6 engines Holden makes are exported and there is dwindling demand for them. The demise of Commodore would be the final straw.

It would cost more than $300 million to upgrade the Holden engine factory to assemble four-cylinder engines but it would be far cheaper to shut the factory and import them. Holden already imports four-cylinder engines for the Cruze.

The Advertiser understands Holden has started plans to build a medium-size, four-cylinder, front-drive car alongside the next generation Holden Cruze from 2017.

But given the continuing strong growth in sales of 4WDs, which are now the second biggest market in Australia, Holden said it may re-evaluate its position.

Holden workers who spoke to The Advertiser on the condition of anonymity were less concerned with what car Holden would build after the Commodore and more concerned about gainful employment.

"It doesn't matter too much to me what we build here, as long as we keep building something and keep our jobs," said one factory worker at the Elizabeth car-making operations.

"We're a bit over all the speculation about the future out here, this sort of stuff has been going on for a long time and we just want to get on with doing the job," said another.

Mr Devereux said Holden was considering an SUV after their record growth last year; they now represent about one-third of new-car sales. But, significantly, none is among the top 10 sellers.

"We're taking a look at (but) there is not an intention to change," he said. "The challenge with an SUV is that there are so many of them."

Holden must pick "two winners".

"They've got to be Top 10. There isn't any room to pick an entry that isn't a top-selling, well-loved vehicle in Australia. It's high stakes no question," Mr Devereux said.

FORD executives in Australia and Detroit have said for some time the future of the Falcon and its Broadmeadows manufacturing facility are not guaranteed beyond the end of 2016.

Ford Australia's director of public affairs Sinead Phipps says: "I can absolutely guarantee no decision has been made (to cease production in Australia). But, she admits, "the business after 2016 is under review".

Ford's global boss Alan Mulally is now so tired of being pestered on the issue he refuses to allocate interview time to Australian journalists.

In the media scrum at Detroit, Mulally told The Advertiser "we will continue to evaluate" the Broadmeadows operations. It was the same answer last time we asked.

But Ford isn't fooling anyone. Broadmeadows produced fewer cars last year than it did in 1960.

Ford fanatics may cry foul at the media reports. But Ford itself has turned away every viable option.

Ford has so far ruled out building locally a small car, a heavy-duty ute and a seven-seater SUV, the three biggest market segments in Australia to replace the Falcon and Territory.

Why would Ford build their global successors in Australia when no-one is buying the cars in sufficient numbers locally and when the strong dollar evaporates any profit?

Parts suppliers in Australia believe Ford will close its manufacturing operations at the end of 2016 because they have not been asked to quote on future models.

Furthermore, Ford has not asked for federal or state government funding for a manufacturing program beyond 2016. The big wheels of the car industry turn slowly and have long lead times. If Ford were building anything locally beyond its previously state 2016 deadline, the paperwork would have been signed more than a year ago.

Ford is brutally pragmatic when it comes to closing factories.

Late last year Ford shut three factories with long-standing history in the United Kingdom and Europe as it matches falling demand there. It also shed thousands of jobs and up to 17 factories in the US after the Global Financial Crisis.

There are other worrying signs. Ford posted its biggest recorded financial loss last year, $290 million, after modest profits of $13 million in 2009 and $26 million in 2010. In the same financial period, Holden's profit was exactly the same amount as what it received in taxpayer money: $89.7 million.

- with Stuart Martin

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